Bet 962

Duration 5 years (02025-02030)

“In the next 5 years, the global market for health and coaching will rise at least 5 times”

PREDICTOR
Oleg Moskvin

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Moskvin's Argument

While Precedence Research now pegs the 2025 health-and-coaching market at about USD 20 billion, this reputable source's projection for 2030 (around 30 billion), in my view, is largely understated because it does not account for the revolutionary rearrangements in society that will happen in this period. Those rearrangements, driven by an explosive growth of inclusion of advanced AI into the tapestry of society, will result in a massive Life Purpose Crisis and the demand for both psychological support and lifestyle coaching among people across broader layers of society. Also, beyond the psychological layer, blooming opportunities for AI-driven personalized health solutions will shape an explosive growth of services in this area, as an alternative to traditional healthcare. The bold, intuition-based prediction by this single person is that the current market size projection made by the respected, research-based and trustworthy organization (which is also in line with alternative estimates from other high-profile sources) is at least 3 times too conservative. By 2030, we will witness a health and coaching market of no less than USD 100 billion. That is a 5-fold leap from now. Why question the trusted sources? Why rank that fuzzy and irrational "human intuition" higher than the strict, reality-grounded research? And the most striking question - why a professional researcher with decades of experience and critical thinking deeply implanted into his personality is doing exactly that?! The keyword unveiling the answer is Disruption. Every established strict research is based on assumptions / axioms. Those may be valid for centuries and millennia; however, the rapidly approaching environment of living with strong AI creates a never-before-seen point of Matrix Disruption that would affect the downstream results of established predictive tools. What would be the most prominent Matrix Disruption manifestation? Most likely, it will be the profound tension between human minds that evolved to expect stable worldviews throughout a lifetime and a new reality where fundamental assumptions shift monthly or even weekly. As AI enables increasingly personalized experiences (potentially fragmenting into multiple "personal realities"), the risk of losing connection with shared, objective reality becomes acute. Navigating this unprecedented psychological landscape while preserving sanity and authentic selfhood will emerge as a universal human challenge, one that demands deep, skilled coaching at a scale we've never seen before.

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