Bet 959

Duration 11 years (02025-02035)

“Within 10 years, meat eating will be becoming socially unacceptable in the United States in the same way that cigarette smoking has become socially unacceptable.”

PREDICTOR
David Abrams

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Abrams's Argument

Meat consumption entails practices which are arguably cruel to animals. The practice has persisted since time immemorial due to cultural inertia and the fact that there are not a lot of alternatives which are economical, adequately nutritious, and satisfying. But the general trend has been towards greater sensitivity towards animal rights. At the same time, technology is more and more supplying alternatives which are economical, nutritious, and satisfying. I predict that within 10 years, the practice of eating meat will be on the way to becoming socially unacceptable as happened with cigarettes. The specific test is as follows: The first day after March 21, 2035 on which Michelin-starred restaurants are announced, we look at all the Michelin-starred restaurants in New York County; Washington DC; San Francisco County; and LA County. I predict that at least half of the restaurants on that list will have meat-free menus. When I use the word "meat," I am talking about things like beef steak, veal, chicken, etc., i.e. food products which are primarily derived from the flesh of animals. Animal products, such as milk or cream, do not count as "meat." Lab-grown meat does not count either.

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