“Either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party or both will splinter on or before June 10, 2048 (02048), 23.5 years from now.”

I write to you of the Long Now. Human nature is such that opinions are closely held and all evidence to the contrary is rationalized away. Most people exercise motivated reasoning which is a flawed variation of true reasoning. Consequently, Hegel was right! Future history will continue to be a constant struggle between prevailing ideologies. Here in America, the country that I love, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the Republican National Committee (RNC) are conducting a gigantic shell game that cannot last. They spend massively to manipulate our opinions in a vain attempt to persuade us that there are only two possible points of view. Ridiculous! The PEW Research Center has identified eight distinct political persuasions at large and vying for attention in the American mainstream. The haphazard dominance of the Big Two will eventually come to an end. Perhaps the Faith and Family Republicans will split from the Libertarian Republicans. Perhaps the Left-leaning Democrats will split from the Free Enterprise Democrats. My crystal ball is not completely clear on how the fault lines will solidify, but the break or breaks will come. My prediction: Either the Democratic Party or the Republican Party or both will splinter. This kind of splintering has happened before, and it will happen again. In 1854 the Whig Party splintered over slavery issues and the Republican Party formed. In 1948 the Dixiecrats walked out of the Democrat National Convention in protest against the Party’s support of Civil Rights. At the beginning of this century, the Republican Tea Party threatened to mount a third party in opposition to federal control. Both parties are held together with bailing wire and duct tape. A major split in one or both parties could happen tomorrow, but I will predict a major restructuring of one or both parties on or before my 100th birthday, June 10, 2048 (02048), 23.5 years from now. Don’t get me wrong! The DNC and the RNC will go to extraordinary lengths to hold onto their respective constituencies, but one or both of those flagships will run aground, and, frankly, I hope it happens to both.