“By the end of 2033, it will be possible to order a burger, fries, and a drink for delivery by flying drone in Santa Barbara, CA.”

The bet that by 2033 it will be possible to order a burger, fries, and a drink for delivery by flying drone in Santa Barbara, CA, is grounded in several compelling factors. First, the unit economics of drone delivery are poised to surpass those of gig workers, offering a more cost-effective solution for businesses. Unlike human labor, drones have lower operational overhead, even when considering ownership and maintenance costs, making them a financially attractive option. Additionally, drones offer unique advantages in terms of convenience and reliability. With the ability to deliver packages directly to a backyard or through an open window, they provide a level of service that traditional delivery methods cannot match. This is complemented by their superior hygiene, speed, and consistency, ensuring that customers receive their orders in optimal condition and on time. Importantly, the technology required for drone delivery is already in place, meaning that no major breakthroughs are necessary for this vision to become a reality. The primary challenges will come from regulatory hurdles, particularly aviation regulations that govern airspace usage. Local regulations, such as Santa Barbara's current stance on shared scooters, may also pose obstacles, but these are likely to evolve as the benefits of drone delivery become more evident. Overall, the economic and operational advantages, coupled with the convenience and reliability of drones, make this bet a plausible prediction for the near future.