Bet 950
Duration 2 years (02024-02026)
PREDICTOR
Hjalmar Peters
CHALLENGER
Unchallenged
Dan Larimer, the creator of cryptocurrency projects such as BitShares, Steem, and EOS, claims he is "99% certain" there will be a full-scale nuclear attack on the USA on October 9th, 2024, at 6:40 AM Jerusalem time. He bases this prediction on a combination of biblical interpretation and astrology. However, I believe his methodology is flawed, and his evidence appears to be merely a collection of selectively chosen coincidences. Although the risk of nuclear escalation is certainly higher now than in recent years due to current wars and hostilities, I believe it is still far more likely that the USA will not experience a full-scale nuclear attack within the next 2 years (the minimum period of Long Bets), particularly not on October 9th, 2024. I therefore predict that there will be fewer than three hostile nuclear detonations on US soil within the next 2 years (accounting for the possibility of an accident or a warning shot). For what it's worth, this is not a bet against the Bible itself but only against Larimer's interpretation of it. I would bet up to 1 million USD. Dan Larimer?