Bet 934
Duration 8 years (02023-02030)
PREDICTOR
Ryan D McGlothlin
CHALLENGER
Unchallenged
The US EIA published its Annual Energy Outlook 2023 on March 16, 2023. In the AEO is a projection for the adoption of EVs in the US that I believe is too slow. We saw China hit a 22% market share for EVs in 2022, and Europe a 12% share. The US has lagged in adoption, but looks poised for a fast catch-up given a significant increase in new EV models (especially pickups and SUVs), increased focus on solving long-distance charging issues for non-Tesla EVs and the the incentives provided by the Inflation Reduction Act. EVs provide a superior driving experience and ultimately will be cheaper to both maintain and *build* than ICE vehicles (even without government incentive). These cost and quality advantages will sway ever more buyers who may be currently nervous about adopting a new technology with such a large price tag and which is so integral to daily life.