My reasoning is as follows: - GROWING FEDERAL DEBT & HEALTHCARE COSTS OF THE BABY-BOOMERS According to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation's DebtClock.ca, Canada's federal debt is currently 1.17 trillion Canadian dollars. Combined with the provincial debts, the number comes to 2.14 trillion Canadian dollars. According to WorldEconomics.com, this exceeds Canada's estimated GDP for 2021. Reducing public spending is going to be politically difficult for elected leaders. Public sector labour unions hold Canadian government by the throat, and have for over three decades (see back issues of The Taxpayer Magazine) threatened strikes (and sometimes have acted on them) if their demands are not met. This has created a great disparity in the standard of living and in the wage expectations of the public-sector class vs. the private-sector class, the latter of which face stagnating wages. This is making it incredibly difficult for Canadian millennials who work in the private-sector to buy homes and climb into higher wage brackets - which is a necessity to fund the Canada Pension Plan and the Canadian socialised healthcare system. The baby-boomer generation is retiring from the workforce and as they become more geriatric, the costs on Canada's healthcare system are going to increase. Revenue Canada is facing a bottleneck in that there are not enough Millennials in high-tax brackets to cover the healthcare costs of the senior bulge. Steve Randall writes for WealthProfessional.ca: "According to a new study from the Fraser Institute, the number of working-aged Canadians relative to the number of seniors has declined from 5.4 in 2000 to 3.4 in 2022. It is forecast to be just 2.4 by 2050. The share of Canada’s population that is 65 or older increased from 14% in 2010 to 19% in 2022 and Statistics Canada expects it to rise to 25% by 2059." It is not merely domestic sources pointing to potential economic failure in Canada. An OECD ten-year projection of 40 states and economic common areas placed Canada last in forecast annual real GDP per capita growth per annum. ("Where have all the workers gone? Don't blame COVID, economists say", Steele, CBC, 23-07-02022) ("Cost of elder care expected to double by 2031 as baby boomers turn 75: CMA study", Canadian Press by way of CTV News, 25-03-02021) ("As Canada's population ages, who will pay the taxes needed?", Randall, WealthProfessional.ca, 27-05-02022) ("Young Canadians Won’t Have The Same Opportunity As Past Generations: OECD Forecast", BetterDwelling.com, 17-12-02021) ("Canada’s ‘roaring’ recovery is not as robust as it seems", Sean Speer, The Hub, 08-07-02022) ("Why Canadian wages never seem to go up", Douglas Todd, Vancouver Sun, 09-05-02022) - PROBLEMS WITH STATE EMPLOYEES Canada is currently experiencing several crises in multiple government departments, including: - record-setting backlogs in the processing of passports, Nexus card applications, and immigration applications; - collapse of reliable air travel services and pilot certification; - closures of emergency rooms and failing emergency care from paramedics ("deep-red alerts"); - continued inability to effectively address the issues of shortages of housing and clean drinking water on Indigenous reserves; - an invasive, unconstitutional app travellers are required to follow the instructions of if they want to enter Canada freely; - ongoing sexual harassment scandals, especially in the armed forces; - ongoing (decades-long) failure to properly equip and train the armed forces All of these scandals are weighing on Canadian citizens' trust in their governments. According to a study by Proof Strategies, "Trust in government is at an all-time low. Only 22 per cent of Canadians trust government to do what is right for Canada, a 10-point drop from 2021. When asked about sources of reliable information, trust in politicians remains at an extremely low 18 per cent. “Trust in Canada’s Prime Minister is now at 33 per cent and trust in provincial and territorial leaders is at 32 per cent. It’s clear that our elected leaders, no matter their political stripe, have a steep hill to climb when it comes to earning the public’s trust,” said Genevieve Tomney, Vice President, Public Affairs at Proof Strategies." This study also found that barely half of Canadian citizens trust their military, 40% trust the financial markets, and 47% trust registered charities. ("NP View: Trudeau Fiddles While the Federal Government Crumbles Around Him", National Post, 24-07-02022) ("Concerns rise over city police being forced to act as ambulance crews", Kaufmann, Calgary Sun, 24-07-02022) ("Canada's public service is collapsing. Let us count the ways", National Post, 09-07-02022) ("Pride in Canada's military has eroded over the past year: report", Richard Raycraft, CBC, 24-07-02022) ("Canadian Forces in desperate need of new spending, procurement follow-through, experts say", Christian Paas-Lang, CBC, 02-04-02022) ("Jean Charest says Canada 'unprepared' for conflict, pitches major investments in defence", John Paul Tasker, CBC, 04-04-02022) ("The Mistrust Variant: Anxiety and Stress Wearing Down Trust among Canadians", GetProof.com, 09-02-02022) - STATE MULTICULTURALISM & DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE Since 01988, the de facto state doctrine of Canada has been embodied in the Canadian Multiculturalism Act. In 02016, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau essentially declared a success of the transition from a British dominion to a "post-national state", in which he declared "There is no core identity, no mainstream in Canada". In the days following this statement, it was written in the Vancouver Sun: "a case can be made that the housing affordability crises in Metro Vancouver and Toronto is a result of a “postnational” mindset. Canada’s politicians are failing to put serious effort into protecting residents of Vancouver or Toronto from transnational financial forces [due to immigration from the Asian giants, especially China]... Though Canada’s particular style of nationalism is fluid and not simple to define, it’s part of what makes the country attractive to immigrants, who often arrive from dysfunctional regions torn by corruption and cynicism about national officials... Healthy nationalism requires loyalty between citizens and leaders, says Geoffrey Taunton-Collins, who writes for www.adamsmith.org. A nation’s leaders are expected to protect their citizens from outside powers. That is not what is happening in Vancouver and Toronto, where the forces of transnationalism have been allowed to run amok. “The city has become a commodity,” former Vancouver city councillor Jonathan Baker recently lamented. It’s being increasingly occupied by transnational wealth." ("The dangers of Trudeau's 'postnational' Canada", Douglas todd, Vancouver Sun, 28-04-02016) Furthermore, Canada's founding Euro-Indigenous ethnocultural makeup and Atlanticist external orientation are being rapidly replaced by an Indo-Pacific makeup and orientation. Structural public shame about previous federal policies, such as the noteable Chinese Exclusion Act of 01923, hamstrings policy-makers from addressing such national security issues as demographic change and cultural continuity. The commonalities that provide convenient avenues for people to build meaningful social links with each other - language, accent, religious convictions, political worldviews, acceptable topics for conversation, ethnophysical relatability, and favoured pastimes - are rapidly decreasing for the average Canadian as this country continues towards ever-greater heterogeneity. This is leading to social atomisation, stratification, and a disjointed body politic. Many unexpected problems will emerge, due to breakages in sociological links - links never before considered as being intrinsic to a healthy functioning nation-state. - CLIMATE CHANGE RELIGION While Canada experiences high inflation and is experiencing food insecurity not seen since the 01930s, the federal government has designs that are liable to exacerbate this food insecurity - through expansion of carbon taxation, and by setting a 30% reduction target in fertiliser use by 02030. The schemes to reduce Canada's GHG emissions all have the effect of penalising the end consumer and creating a financial disincentive to grocery shopping, discretionary spending, and travelling. Joe Oliver, an experienced Cabinet minister under the Harper Conservative government, in a special for the Financial Post, writes: "... Canada is suffering through a period of economic irrationality, rooted in progressive ideology, green fixation and groupthink, rather than data, economic principles and common sense... [Canada's] energy economy has been sacrificed on the green altar of Prime Minister Trudeau’s unreasonable hostility to the development of the third and fourth largest proven oil and gas reserves in the world... with the highest inflation in 40 years ravaging their standard of living and forcing the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates aggressively, risking a recession, which in fact RBC is already predicting for next year... He [Trudeau] has caused hundreds of billions of dollars in opportunity costs and direct expenses to be spent on it. He has imposed punitive taxes and intrusive regulations in its name. He has all but declared war on the energy sector and he has undermined national unity and destroyed well-paying middle-class jobs. And he has made clear for the world to see our pitiful inability to ship oil and gas to allies in their moment of dire need." Affordable energy is not a luxury for modern life. Derek Cook of the Canadian Poverty Institute writes, "These households are sometimes referred to as being in “energy poverty.” Energy poverty is when people spend a disproportionate amount of their income on home energy costs. This is due to the combined impact of low incomes, increasing prices and poor home energy efficiency. One benchmark for energy poverty is when a household spends more than double the national average of its income on home energy. Energy poverty can have significant impacts on our health and well-being. Poorly heated homes can affect our health due to cold and the presence of mould that can exacerbate chronic conditions like asthma. There are also financial impacts when people take on debt or forgo other expenses to pay their bills, or they fall behind in their utility payments, which can affect their credit rating. Safety is another risk when people sometimes resort to unsafe cooking and heating methods, like using barbecues indoors. Energy poverty even affects our social lives as people are less likely to have visitors as a result." All of which can be exacerbated by the costs energy poverty has on employers - such as layoffs, reduction in working hours and/or wages, and even business closures. The Republic of Korea, from 01953 to the end of the twentieth century, built one of the strongest economies in the world out of what had been in 01945 one of the most devastated. The religiosity of the Government of Canada's committment to its GHG reduction goals may result in a reverse version of South Korea's experience in Canada. (Food and energy — the Liberal government's attack on life's essentials", Rex Murphy, National Post, 25-07-02022) ("High gas prices have been the plan all along". John Williamson, Financial Post, 19-07-02022) ("Needed badly — economic reality and common sense", Joe Oliver, Financial Post, 21-07-02022) ("High gas prices hurting? That’s exactly what Trudeau wants", Terrazzano & Sims, Toronto Sun, 10-07-02022) ("Poverty, power and the skyrocketing cost of utilities", Derek Cook, Calgary Herald, 10-03-02022) - UNPREPAREDNESS FOR MAJOR NATIONAL CRISES Canada faces a serious telecom outage hazard, due to great physical distances, low population density, and a dearth of intra-industry competition. On 08-07-02022, a massive outage of Rogers Wireless hardware resulted in "millions of Canadians los[ing] internet and wireless service for hours on end last week... which lasted through all of Friday and, for some customers, lasted into the weekend. Rogers going completely offline had impacted retail payment systems across the country and other business operations and left people unable to call 9-1-1." This event - not the first of its kind - reveals a woeful inadequacy in Canada in preparing to deal with cyber-emergencies and e-terrorism. ("After massive Rogers outage, Liberals to force telecoms to help each other in emergencies", Karadeglija, National Post, 11-07-02022) ("Collaboration is key to mature the resilience of Canada's critical infrastructure", Dinis, Financial Post, 18-07-02022) Moving from copper wiring to limbic wiring, Canada is facing a mental health crisis on an unprecedented scale. According to an Angus Reid Forum poll of 2550 Canadians. 82% have agreed with the statement "The pandemic has pulled people further apart", 79% that "The pandemic as brought out the worst in people", and 61% that "Canadians' level of compassion for one another has grown weaker". 54% of those polled stated that their mental health has gotten worse since March 2020. Between 61% and 78% (depending on age bracket) believed that "Canada will struggle just as much as we did this time if another pandemic occurs." Party partisanship also showed an extremely divided set of perceptions on this topic - revealing huge potential for conflict between both electors and elected officials if (or when) the next health crisis occurs. According to HCAMag.com, "A new study from Capterra showed that from the 69% of employees who reported positive mental health before the pandemic began, it dropped by 22 percentage points to only 47% in February 2022. According to the report, about 32% of employees reported moderate mental health as of February 2022, while 21% remained are still suffering from negative mental health." The pandemic was another stack of hay onto the Canadian camel's back - a camel that already shoulders the mental health burdens created or exacerbated by low population density, long winters that are cold and dark often, shortages of affordable housing, loss of purchasing power due to inflation of the Canadian dollar, easy access to legal cannabis, wage stagnation, and a culture of national self-loathing due to guilt over our colonial history. The paranoia and depression caused by the effects of the pandemic and government responses to it have exposed latent mental health problems in vulnerable Canadians, many of whom have family and/or employers who are depending on them and cannot easily spare the time and money to look after themselves. According to an Ipsos poll, "63 per cent of Canadian millennials are at “high risk” for mental health issues... Up to 20 per cent of young Canadians are affected by a mental illness or disorder. Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, anxiety, eating disorders and substance abuse are the most typical for this age group." (This poll is from 2017 - well before the covid pandemic exposed latent mental health problems in those vulnerable) Trust in the mental faculties of our fellow citizens is an absolute necessity for a viable culture to thrive. It would not take more than a couple percent of the Canadian population to be clinically schizophrenic to catastrophically jeopardise this. ("COVID at Two: Vast majorities say the pandemic has pulled Canadians apart, brought out the worst in people", Angus Reid Forum, 10-03-02022) ("Mental health crisis: Canadian wellbeing is spiralling out of control", Dexter Tilo, HCAMag.com, 07-04-02022) ("Mental Disorder Drugs Market is set to See Impressive Growth to 2031, Says TMR", Biospace.com, 20-07-02022) (Mental health expert warns of 'significant increase' in cannabis-induced psychosis", Cillian O'Brien, CTV, 01-01-02019) ("Why more Canadian millennials than ever are at ‘high risk’ of mental health issues", Carmen Chai, Global News, 02-05-02017) CONCLUSION All of the abovementioned negative influences in our country are summarised in brief by a popular self-produced op-ed writer in Canada named Spencer Fernando, in his 20-04-02021 article "Canada Has Lost Our Sense Of Ambition": "[S]o much of what people see is all about viewing the future with fear, as if we have nothing to look forward to but an endless attempt to mitigate crisis. It should be no surprise that our society is becoming more and more empty and meaningless, leading to more drug use, more deaths of despair, and a sense of lethargy and sadness that permeates much of our country today. Just look at the numbers on suicides, depression, and mental health problems. It all points to the fact that something has gone seriously wrong with our society and our country. Further to that, we try to ‘buy’ our way out of the problem, with endless debt and deficits being used by the government to cover-up for the loss of hope and ambition, which is of course doomed to fail and will cause even further problems." I could say more and cite more - and potentially cause a loss of interest in the reader by pushing them into a pit of despair and/or boredom (as it is collaquially called in my circles, "black-pill"). However, I believe this short essay is sufficient to support my prediction that by 11:59 PM Mountain Time, 31 December 02042 (and this is an optimistic guess), the organs of the Government of Canada will have permanently ceased to function. ADDENDUM I will consider my prediction to be correct if, by the end of 02042: - Canada is absorbed into the American Union or becomes a U.S. federal territory; - Confederation breaks apart and is replaced by several successor states; - A nuclear war or other doomsday event causes all governing systems in Canada to cease to function I would however consider my prediction to be incorrect if, by the same date: - Canada transitions from a monarchy to a republic and remains otherwise intact; - If one or more provinces separate (legally or not) from Confederation and Canada remains as a rump state; - If Canadian territory is illegally occupied by any foreign power and the Government of Canada continues to administer a portion of Canadian sovereign territory
Challenge Jordan C Lewans to a bet on this prediction!