Bet 900

Duration 11 years (02022-02033)

“The International Criminal Court will become totally independent of the Security Council and may even gain the ability to override the vetoes of the latter.”

PREDICTOR
Jason W Galbraith

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Galbraith's Argument

Volodmyr Zelensky in addressing the UN called out that body's inherent flaw, its total inability to hold P5 members of the Security Council accountable for anything they do. The current practice of running ICC investigations by the Security Council gives every P5 member the ability to veto not only investigations into its own wars of conquest but those of its allies, meaning that Africa, the only continent no one really cares about, is the only place where the ICC has been able to bring successful cases. Not since 1939 has there been such worldwide revulsion against a major power's abuse of a smaller power, as there has been in response to the invasion of Ukraine. The world community will not stand for a complete failure to bring to book the major organizers of the invasion of Ukraine and it will never again stand for something like the comparable invasion of Iraq by the United States 19 years ago.

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