Bet 891

Duration 10 years (02022-02032)

“Within 10 years from now, free markets for the stablecoin TerraUSD (UST) will no longer exist, or more than 10 billion UST will have been traded below 0.90 USD, or UST will be backed by USD.”

Hjalmar Peters


Peters's Argument

In order to redeem UST, it can be sold directly or indirectly (by swapping to Luna and subsequently selling those Luna). However, there is only a limited amount of USD willing to buy UST or Luna. If, at some point in the future, this amount becomes smaller than the amount of UST to be redeemed, then UST must lose its peg. The Luna Foundation Guard is currently in the process of backing UST with Bitcoin in order to mitigate this risk. However, since Bitcoin is a volatile asset, the risk of severe undercollateralization and depegging in periods of stress will remain. I think this risk will materialize in the short or medium term and therefore predict that UST will depeg, vanish, or give up on decentralization. I would bet up to $250k. Do Kwon?

Challenge Peters!

Challenge Hjalmar Peters to a bet on this prediction!