Bet 877

Duration 18 years (02021-02040)

“By 2040, a SpaceX manufactured satellite will be involved in a collision with another object in space.”

Chris Rodriguez


Rodriguez's Argument

Of all the constellations in NGSO, Starlink has the largest numbers to date and has the best vector to proliferate as they own the launch infrastructure. In other words, they can succeed by their own momentum. 1. Their current rollout includes satellites that fail and have to undergo deorbiting, it is inevitable they end up with a few inactive satellites. Any company would have the same fate due to the nature of quality control never being perfect (and anomalies). Inactive satellites tend to be responsible for collisions. 2. They are, increasingly, responsible for a rising number of conjunctions. Some estimates have 2 COLA maneuvers a day by 2034. 3. Other players in the trade space will increase the likelihood of collisions by creating debris that will fall into Starlink's planned orbits. 4. Internal conjunctions are a subset of External conjunctions. As constellations get denser, avoiding external conjunctions increase the probability of internal conjunctions. A satellite, as defined in this prediction, does not include debris from rockets. However, Debris from rockets is considered "another object in space."

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