Bet 862

Duration 5 years (02021-02026)

“There will be no serious long-term adverse effects from mass mRNA vaccination against COVID-19.”

Gabriel D Dimitrov


Dimitrov's Argument

Vaccination against COVID-19 is on the run around the world. One of the biggest arguments that sparks doubt in evidence-based medicine and the new mRNA technology is that these vaccines haven't been proven to be safe in the long term, therefore mRNA vaccination could be dangerous for society. With this bet, I want to challenge the anti-vax movement and all other people that spread this argument and sow doubt in society, making them less prone to vaccinate. The current mRNA vaccines which are in mass vaccination programs and have been proven to be safe and effective in randomized double-blind studies, i.e. the golden standard of evidence-based medicine, are those of Moderna and Pfizer. This bet is applicable only for them at the moment. Any mRNA vaccine with the same results in the future is counted in this bet too. By serious long-term adverse effects, I mean long-term or lifelong disability and death, caused by any evidence-based mRNA vaccine in the next 5 or more years. Any effect of this sort must be proved by the standards of evidence-based medicine. Usually, it's considered a good practice to wish good luck to your opponents. But in this situation, I would refrain from doing it!

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