Bet 839

Duration 16 years (02020-02035)

“By the end of 2035, more electricity will be generated globally from wind and solar power combined than from coal.”


Holmes à Court's Argument

Wind and solar energy have been growing rapidly in line with rapidly reducing costs and increased acceptance of the requirement to reduce global emissions. Meanwhile, the cost of building coal power generation is increasing, in part due to difficultly of obtaining finance due to increasing carbon risk and the erosion of social license. According to BP statistics, in 2009 coal out-generated wind and solar (combined) by a factor of 27-to-1. By 2019 the ratio had dropped to 4.6-to-1. As the build-out of wind and solar progresses and retirements of coal power generation begin to outpace new coal power development, the combined annual output of wind and solar generators globally will surpass coal power generation.

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