Bet 835

Duration 10 years (02020-02030)

“No coal-fired power stations will be built in Australia's main grids between 2010 and 2030.”


Holmes à Court's Argument

On 10 December 2009 the Bluewaters coal power stations first generated power into the South West Integrated System (SWIS), in Western Australia. As of 2020, despite multiple announced projects, no new coal-fired power stations have been built in Australia since. While the costs of new generation from wind and solar have been falling, the costs of new coal power have only increased. The availability of financing and insurance for coal facilities has become increasingly difficult to obtain, and the possibility of a future carbon price or emissions regulations looms large over any business case. (For the purposes of this prediction, Australia's main grids are the National Electricity Market and the SWIS. To qualify as new the project must be "greenfield", or on a site where all units were demolished. Refurbishments or new units at existing plants don't qualify. To qualify as "built" the first unit of the new power station must generate and export at above 50% capacity into the grid over at least one entire calendar month at any time prior to February 2030.)

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