“By Dec 31st 2020, fewer than 30% of Americans with home broadband will be on packages that are significantly biased to specified sites (i.e. non-net-neutrality packages - for clarity, we define these as packages that throttle all sites other than a named list to < 10Mbps)” Detailed Terms »

PREDICTOR
Will Critchlow

CHALLENGER
Mike Bestvina

STAKES $400

will go to ACLU if Critchlow wins,
or Electronic Frontier Foundation if Bestvina wins.

Critchlow's Argument

I believe that the market will prove to be more competitive than many commentators who are talking about the negative effects of net neutrality believe it is. In particular, I think that mobile broadband and new broadband technologies will provide enough of a meaningful alternative to the local monopoly fixed line providers to keep them somewhat in check and prevent them offering the most abusive kinds of limited internet packages.

Bestvina's Argument

I believe that a lack of regulatory oversight (e.g. repeal of net neutrality) into a neutral net will cause an oligopoly of ISPs to restrict traffic in ways that are detrimental to end consumers. Ultimately this means Americans will be forced into predatory pricing based on the types of content. For example - this is already being applied on mobile internet (4G/LTE) where consumers have to pay extra for things like Netflix/Youtube.

Detailed Terms

Adjudication will take place on June 1 02021, to give the respective agencies time to collect the data on the previous year.