Bet 753

Duration 9 years (02018-02026)

“By the end of 2026, there will be less than 2 active commercial wind tunnels in the US” Detailed Terms »

Andre Wegner

Spencer N Wright


will go to International Association for the Engineering Modelling, Analysis and Simulation Community if Wegner wins,
or The Society of Women Engineers if Wright wins.

Wegner's Argument

Simulation technology, especially finite element analysis, and associated computing power is advancing so rapidly that it will be easy, cheap and 100% accurate to simulate every facet of our life.

Wright's Argument

Computer aided engineering has made huge impacts in the way that new products are designed, developed, and tested. Finite element analysis and computational fluid dynamics have enabled iteration and out-of-the-box thinking in ways that would have been extremely time consuming and difficult in previous eras.

However, the real world is still *very* important. Computer aided simulation still requires verification, and even in well-trod cases it is often quicker and easier to run physical experiments than it is to run them virtually using computer aided engineering.

This will not change anytime soon. There are currently dozens of active wind tunnels in the US, serving a wide range of industries. By 2026, there will still be more than two active wind tunnels in the US.

Detailed Terms

2 wind tunnels offering services against payment in the United States performing at least 3 experiments/tests a week must be operational by Dec 31 02026 for the challenger to win.