“The rate of fatalities for seafarers will be ten times that for shore based occupations in 02021.”

Current seafarer fatalities are 10x other occupations (OECD) or higher; Roberts (2014) has 26x for UK seafarer fatalities. The rate of seafarer fatalities has come down in recent years, but so has rate for shore jobs. My hope is that the prediction can be used to spur the industry into improving the rate to prove me wrong.