Bet 710

Duration 14 years (02016-02029)

“By December 31 02029 one of the world's top ten car manufacturers in 02015 (Volkswagen, Toyota, Daimler, GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler, Honda, Nissan, BMW, SAIC) will stop manufacturing cars powered by internal combustion engines.”

nigel p topping


Topping's Argument

EV sales are growing exponentially and JP Morgan recently predicted compound growth of 26% through 02025. With Chevy Bolt and Tesla 3 release in next 12 months, mass market 200 mile range EVs are a reality now. As battery costs fall, range increases and infrastructure improves, all assets committed to ICE-based infrastructure risk becoming stranded which will force VMs to get off the fence and commit fully to EV R+D and cease ICE development. Before 02025 the world's largest VMs will be competing with new entrants Tesla and possibly Apple- and/or Google-based partnerships, the better experience of E driving will have become the socially desirable norm and exponential growth of EV market share will outstrip even JPMs predictions leading to the cessation of ICE manufacture by at least one top VM by 02030.

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