Bet 521

Duration 21 years (02009-02030)

“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.”

PREDICTOR
James P Rutt

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Rutt's Argument

While MAD worked with a few heavily armed nuclear powers, proliferation of non-existential (to civilization) sized arsenals make use much more likely and, indeed, even "reasonable" for tyrants attempting to maintain their power.

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