Bet 433

Duration 15 years (02008-02023)

“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years - outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.”

matt oesterle


Oesterle's Argument

when it comes to personal aircraft capable of landing and taking off vertically, it is unclear on what types of technologies and crafts will achieve the optimal demand / cost tradeoff. but one thing is clear: within 15 years, the distance that people can commute on a daily basis at a cost-effective fuel / energy price will dramatically increase.

within this timeframe, these aircraft will certainly not be widespread in either ownership or usage. many constraints exist; mostly on purchase and maintenance cost, but not exclusive of the space required for it to be feasible to land a vertical-takeoff aircraft both at your home and near your office.

at the same time, however, a small group of high net worth individuals working in major cities will ultimately be able to live in and land private vertical-takeoff aircraft in previously remote areas from a commuting perspective, and also be able to afford maintenance and parking rates in small landing areas that will inevitably begin popping up in warehouse districts and other cheap land within short drives in the city.

this prediction does not suppose that suddenly everyone starts flying to work within 15 years. which would be great, but also completely ridiculous to suggest, even within the next 40 years.

however, slight adoption of personal aircraft technology will cause real estate speculation to drive up prices where, after 5-10 years of viable craft options existing, areas have more than a few adopters. and that's the prediction - there may only be a few hundred of these things flying around in 15 years, but it will be enough to cause a significant impact.

the san francisco bay area and los angeles will be natural places for early adoption to start catching on. as big sur is centrally located between the two cities, it will see the largest personal aviation-related gains in real estate value of any area in the world. and it won't be the only place - multiple areas within 100-250 miles of major metropolitan areas will see similar gains over the period.

and since the market is terrible right now, what better time than to throw in that this return of 7.6% annually over the 15 year period (tripling) will also outperform the s&p 500 within that timeframe.

Oesterle was challenged to a bet!

matt oesterle is negotiating the terms of a bet about this prediction. It will soon be added to Bets on the Record.