“No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and compositeness of quarks and gluons but NOT additional Higgs bosons, families of particles or neutrino masses. Theoretical advances in understanding the hierarchy problem are not `substantial' experimental departures in this sense, but can lead to profound new understanding.”

I argue that the situation with the standard model is similar quantum electrodynamics in the 1940's. There were some ideas (e.g., Born-Infeld) that the divergences of electrodynamics should be cured by changing the laws of electromagnetism, Maxwell's equations. Instead, Quantum Electrodynamics kept the basic laws but profoundly changed out theoretical understanding of them, and dealt with the divergences through renormalization. The hierarchy problem in the standard model will be similarly solved by advances in renormalization theory.

Of course, eventually the basic equations of electrodynamics also changed, with the Glashow-Salam-Weinberg theory of electroweak unification. Such modifications of the standard model will happen also but not before 2015.

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