Bet 297

Duration 23 years (02007-02029)

“China will break apart by 2030” Detailed Terms »

Chris Kakris


Kakris's Argument

Chinese government will be unable to manage the growing issues that it will face over the next couple of decades. These problems include (but are not limited to): national minority issues such as Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia; urbanization; rapid economic growth and income disparity; banking stability, taxation and corruption; climate change, pollution, water; representation and democracy; health issues, AIDS and pandemics.

Internal or external shocks will highlight the inability, or reluctance, of the government to deal these issues. This will result in a collapse or violent toppling of the government and subsequently one or more regions will declare autonomy. For the purpose of this prediction Taiwan is considered to be part of China.

Kakris was challenged to a bet!

Chris Kakris is negotiating the terms of a bet about this prediction. It will soon be added to Bets on the Record.

Detailed Terms

Drew Lethbridge will arbitrate if the predictor and the challenger can't agree.