Bet 137

Duration 100 years (02003-02104)

“The Long Bets Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” Detailed Terms »

Frank Toms


Toms's Argument

Long term thinking is counter to human nature. A few enlightened individuals are the exception, not the rule. There are not enough of them, and they do not have enough power to prevent the idiots from destroying our world. Some cataclysmic event will wipe us out in the next 100 years. It might be through deliberate human action, such as the use of weapons of mass destruction. I think it is more likely to happen through neglect or negligence, such as an environmental catastrophe. It may even be something completely external, such as a large meteor strike. Whatever the cause, human society will go the way of the dinosaurs. There will be no more internet. If anyone survives who remembers the Long Bets Foundation, they will think of it as the ultimate joke on humanity. My departed soul will rejoice to lose this bet.

Toms was challenged to a bet!

Frank Toms is negotiating the terms of a bet about this prediction. It will soon be added to Bets on the Record.

Detailed Terms

The Long Bets Foundation must still exist in 2104, and it must be able to take Long Bets, provide a forum to discuss Long Bets, and pay out winnings to the beneficiaries of Long Bets. The name "Long Bets Foundation" could change as long as these three conditions are still satisfied, and as long as there is Bet continuity (i.e. it still honors the same set of Bets). The forum to discuss need not be on any form of computer network, but it must be publicly available.