Bet 119

Duration 82 years (02003-02085)

“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” Detailed Terms »

Kevin Kelly


Kelly's Argument

China has had a long tradition of Christian settlements starting with the Nestorians and continuing today with indigenous underground churches. With the collapse of communism, and the elimination of traditional eastern spiritual practices during this last century, the country is spinning in a spiritual vacuum.

Islam has also had a long tradition in China, and is fast growing, but it lacks the historical association with the intellectual and professional class that is now starting to emerge. Like Korea, which turned significantly Christian in a few generations, China will acquire Christianity as a large-scale response to the total lack of anything to believe in (not even a constitution) which now permiates its rapidly evolving culture. It will turn to a ready-made religion, of which it has some experience, and which comes with the association of prosperity it so eager wants.

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Detailed Terms

A survey by an independent, non-religious polling agency of a sample of Chinese citizens must reveal that 33% or more respondents self identify as "Christian" or "belonging to a Christian church" or following "Christianity." Their adherence does not have to be exclusive; they may follow other spiritual practices as well. The poll must be conducted before December 31, 2085.