Bet 112

Duration 22 years (02003-02025)

“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.”

Stephen R Waite


Waite's Argument

As the pace of technical change accelerates in coming years, so to will the pace of creative destruction. If one assumes that we will experience as much technical change in the next 22 years as we experienced during the 20th century, many companies currently in the DJIA will be unable to adapt. It is interesting to note that only one of the original 12 companies in the DJIA has remained in the index since 1896--General Electric. Chances are we will witness a similar phenomenon with the Dow in the first part of the 21st century.

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