Bet 105

Duration 2 years (02003-02005)

“As of March 7th, 2005, Osama bin Laden is dead.”

Thomas L Holaday


Holaday's Argument

I believe the reason Osama bin Laden has not circulated a videotape of himself reciting poetry praising al Qaeda actions after December 13, 2001, is that he is dead.

Alternative explanations include:

* He is so grossly incapacitated that his simple appearance would be demoralizing.

* He fears revealing his post-plastic-surgery appearance.

* He has nothing good to say, so he is politely saying nothing.

Evidence suggesting that he is not dead yet includes:

* An audiotape, said to be his voice.

* Notes believed to be in his handwriting.

* Testimony of his cronies.

I do not find that evidence conclusive.

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