I believe the reason Osama bin Laden has not circulated a videotape of himself reciting poetry praising al Qaeda actions after December 13, 2001, is that he is dead.
Alternative explanations include:
* He is so grossly incapacitated that his simple appearance would be demoralizing.
* He fears revealing his post-plastic-surgery appearance.
* He has nothing good to say, so he is politely saying nothing.
Evidence suggesting that he is not dead yet includes:
* An audiotape, said to be his voice.
* Notes believed to be in his handwriting.
* Testimony of his cronies.
I do not find that evidence conclusive.
Challenge Thomas L Holaday to a bet on this prediction!