On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
934.
The market share of new electric light duty vehicles (per the US EIA definition) sold in the US will exceed 17% (>17% EV + PHEV market share) by the end of 2030.
8 years
02023-02030
Ryan D McGlothlin
932.
It will come to light that the United States Federal Government has control of a significant portion of Bitcoin. They will leverage this Bitcoin holding to erase their National debt.
52 years
02023-02075
Jack Chapman
931.
Before Jan 1 2028, a text on the NY Times Bestsellers list will be generated through AI / machine learning process. Authorship may be through a pen-name with non-human authorship revealed after listing is achieved.
5 years
02023-02028
Marshall Hilgemann
928.
S&P 500 Total return will beat BRKB.
Starting point today: 12/23/2022
Ending point today: 12/23/2027
5 years
02022-02027
dividends20 dividends20
927.
Within 20 years electric scooter racing will surpass motorcycle racing in terms of popularity
20 years
02022-02042
Simon Pilepich
925.
Poland will synchronize its first nuclear power plant BEFORE Germany exits coal power.
? years
02022-???
Adam Błażowski
924.
Humanity will encounter super intelligent fully cybernetic extraterrestrial species before encountering super intelligent biological species.
? years
02022-???
Nicholas R Corcoran
922.
Sam Bankman-Fried will be charged with a crime for his actions at FTX/Alameda.
2 years
02022-02025
JP Bonner
921.
I predict that a space satellite launch company will have the highest market cap out of any publicly traded company by 2040
17 years
02022-02040
Engelo Rumora
920.
The NEOM THE LINE building will not be completed as currently envisaged.
Fewer than one million people will live in a single building at the foreseen location in 2035.
12 years
02022-02035
Ansgar J Brenninkmeijer
