These bets are set in stone until they reach judgement. Read the arguments written in favor of each position and discuss the bets with the bettors themselves and the rest of the Long Bets community.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONSTAKESPREDICTORCHALLENGER
712.
Driverless cars will be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024. Trips may be point to point outside of the city center with no requirement for any passenger to take over manual control of the vehicle.
8 years
02016-02024
$500
$250
Jeff McAulay
Stephen Zoepf
704.
During the 500 years between 02015 and 02515, the Farsight Fund will return much less than what it has historically. Past performance would suggest 3-4% real (after inflation) annual return on investment, but it will be 2% or less.
500 years
02015-02515
$1,000
$500
Sandra j Ewen
Sandra Ewen
601.
The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years.
11 years
02011-02022
$1,000
$500
Jeremy Keith
Matthew A Haughey
395.
The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.
17 years
02008-02025
$1,000
$500
Tibor Pacher
Paul A Gilster
382.
Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.
10 years
02008-02018
$1,000
$500
Joe Keane
Nick Damiano
367.
By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as a team member/player.
13 years
02008-02020
$500
$250
Thomas R Leavens
Nils Gilman
363.
By 2018 the Euro (€) will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.
11 years
02008-02018
$2,000
$1,000
Christoph M Stahl
Michael Elsdörfer
362.
Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S&P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.
10 years
02008-02017
$1,000,000
$500,000
Warren Buffett
Protege Partners, LLC
360.
In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.
100 years
02008-02108
$400
$200
Franklin G Forbin
Jane Walter