Bet 9

Duration 18 years (02002-02020)

“By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.”

Martin Rees


Rees's Argument

Biotechnology is plainly advancing rapidly, and by 2020 there will be thousands-even millions-of people with the capability to cause a catastrophic biological disaster. My concern is not only organized terrorist groups, but individual wierdos with the mindset of the people who now design computer viruses. Even if all nations impose effective regulations on potentially dangerous technologies, the cyhance of an active enforcement seems to me as small as in the case of the drug laws.

By "bioerror", I mean something which has the same effect as a terror attack, but rises from inadvertance rather than evil intent.

Challenge Rees!

Challenge Martin Rees to a bet on this prediction!