Bet 814

Duration 16 years (02019-02035)

“Global infant mortality defined as deaths within the first year after birth per 1000 liveborn infants will be 10 per thousand or less before 2035.”

PREDICTOR
Jeffrey Horbar

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Horbar's Argument

Infant mortality globally decreased from 65/1000 to 29/1000 from 1990 to 2019.( Levels and Trends in Child Mortality 2019. UNICEF, 2019) In the US infant mortality is currently 5.7/1000 and 90 countries have rates of 10/1000 or less. (CIA World Factbook)

Lawn et al on the basis of multicountry analyses and multi-stakeholder consultations, propose a target for 2035 of no more than 10 neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths. (Lancet 2014 Jul 12;384(9938):189-205)

The 2·9 million annual neonatal deaths worldwide are attributable to three main causes: infections (0·6 million), intrapartum conditions (0·7 million), and preterm birth complications (1·0 million). As demonstrated by the rates of neonatal death in 90 countries and by the over 50% reduction in neonatal death rates around the world since 1990, these are preventsble csuses. With current knowledge global infant mortality can be reduced to 10 per 1000 livebirths if only we have the will to make this a priority.

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