Bet 811

Duration 11 years (02019-02030)

“By the end of 2030, one or more agency responsible for regulating securities and exchanges in a major global investment market will rule that the holding by professional asset managers of securities issued by fossil fuels companies constitutes negligence.”

PREDICTOR
GARVIN JABUSCH

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

JABUSCH's Argument

The combustion of fossil fuels on a large scale represents an existential, system level risk to the global economy (among other things). Relying on fossil fuels as civilization’s primary, or even secondary, source of energy is inconsistent with an indefinitely thriving economy. Realizing this, civilization will rapidly decarbonize the global economy, exposing the securities of fossil fuels companies to dramatic downward repricing risk. In macroprudential recognition of the scale and severity of this risk, one or more regulatory agency(ies) responsible for oversight of the six largest stock exchanges in the world will not only determine that the holding of securities issued by fossil fuels companies by professional asset managers violates fiduciary duty, but the agency(ies) will rule that holding such securities constitutes negligence. This will occur during or before 2030.

The six relevant agencies are: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), USA Financial Services Agency (FSA), Japan China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), People's Republic of China Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin), Germany Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and/or the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA), UK Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), India

A fossil fuels company for purposes of this bet is defined as any publicly traded company earning more than 50% of its revenues from the exploration, extraction, distribution, refining, servicing and/or wholesale or retail selling of fossil fuels.

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