Bet 795

Duration 10 years (02019-02029)

“In 2029, the US will consume less total energy than it did in 2019.”

PREDICTOR
Andrew P McAfee

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

McAfee's Argument

During the Industrial Era economies around the world grew rapidly. And as they grew, they used more year after year of the Earth’s resources: metals, minerals, fertilizers, trees, fossil fuels, cropland, and so on.

Then we invented the computer and its kin, and the pattern changed.

Hardware, software, and networks allow companies to use fewer materials as they produce their goods and services. Profit-seeking companies in competitive markets are eager to pursue these opportunities to dematerialize because they bring cost savings, and a penny saved is a penny earned. Dematerialization accumulates over time, and the economy as a whole eventually moves past “peak stuff” with respect to more and more resources.

The counterintuitive result is that capitalist, technology-intensive economies like America’s are now dematerializing across a wide range of resources, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Energy costs money just as materials do, so we’ll soon move past peak energy use in the United States.

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