Bet 789

Duration 30 years (02019-02049)

“The IPCC will be displaced and become irrelevant in the discussions around global climate catastrophism within a generation.”

PREDICTOR
tom a luther

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Luther's Argument

The IPCC is a failed political institution. By choosing politics over truth, the IPCC sold credibility and authority for power and expediency, a modern Greek tragedy. Whether there is any truthto anthropogenic climate catastrophism is irrelevant and indeterminate, a casualty of the war on weather and truth. Decades of fabulous UN shrimp dinners and jet-setting conferences, wasted.

Science does not progress linearly, but in fits and starts as evidence builds in support of new ideas while eroding foundations of the old. Quantum mechanics, plate tectonics, evolution, genetics, eugenics... It takes generations for bad ideas to die out and be replaced by new tricks. Bad ideas fail to gather adherents as their believers die. Idea adoption rates are constrained by the political might of entrenched opponents. The human endeavor of science, as all others, is tribal.

The political rigidity of the UN, combined with the ideological purity of the IPCC is a fatal combination for human enterprise. The IPCC is demonstrably incapable of change, reform, or intellectual growth; while cultivating a culture impervious to truth and antagonistic to challenge. To paraphrase Vietnam... the IPCC intends to kill the planet to save it. The rock of science will crush the hard place of the IPCC.

Wikipedia equates a human generation to 30 years.

My prediction is that the IPCC will lose control over the narrative after challenge by a new consensus, likely outside the UN, and slide into irrelevance within one generation.

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