Bet 785

Duration 3 years (02019-02021)

“By Dec 31, 2021 the total volume of payments denominated in Facebook Libra (or any replacement introduced by Facebook) will NOT exceed $1.8 Trillion in a three month period.”

Shamir Karkal


Karkal's Argument

Just the nature of distribution on Facebook is that it Libra will get Billions of USD in transaction volume essentially overnight. Tether does about $20 Billion in daily volume as of June 16, 2019. For Libra to meet or exceed that would constitute a significant success, and I predict that Libra will not get there.

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