Bet 784

Duration 25 years (02019-02044)

“By 2044 it will be illegal to drive in the United States. ”

Eric Blankenburg


Blankenburg's Argument

Autonomous vehicles promise to increase the capacity of existing roads while lowering traffic fatalities. But this can only happen if humans are completely removed from operating vehicles. Therefore, at some point state governments and then finally the federal government will make it illegal for humans to operate vehicles in the United States. The technology for this to happen will be ready at least decade earlier, but generational impediments (i.e., the old folks won't like it) will cause the time frame to be extended.

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