Bet 783

Duration 31 years (02019-02050)

“By 02050, an algorithm will receive a major multi-book publishing deal.”

PREDICTOR
Hugh Howey

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Howey's Argument

Algorithmic attempts at writing fiction novels are crude today, but gradual improvements will see these works become nearly indistinguishable from those written by flesh-and-blood authors.

In the distant future, more books will be written by code than by humans. Before this happens -- I contend by the year 02050 -- we will see an algorithm receive a major multi-book deal for works of fiction offered by a top publisher.

Currently, procedurally generated works appear in financial sections and sports pages with the reader none the wiser. This will be true of novel-length fiction within thirty years.

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