Bet 778

Duration 7 years (02019-02025)

“There will be about one under-M5 earthquake per day in the gas field of Groningen, The Netherlands. ”

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Van Putten's Argument

The Groningen gas field shows exponential growth in earthquake event counts around a magnitude M1 with a doubling time of 6-9 years since 2001. This behavior is identified with dimensionless curvature in land subsidence, which has been evolving at a constant rate over the last few decades essentially uncorrelated to gas production. We demonstrate our mechanism by a tabletop crack formation experiment. The observed skewed distribution of event magnitudes is matched by that of maxima of event clusters with a normal distribution. It predicts about one event <M5 per day in 2025, pointing to increasing stress to human living conditions. (van Putten, M.H.P.M., van Putten, A.F.P., van Putten, M.J.A.M., Earthquakes and Structures, Vol. 11, No. 5 (2016) 861–871, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12989/eas.2016.11.5.861)

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