Bet 763

Duration 5 years (02018-02023)

“There will be at least one 2022 FIFA World Cup match which will have more people watching live via virtual reality than people watching it in person.” Detailed Terms »

CHALLENGER
John Palmer

STAKES $500

will go to Asha for Education if Ayyappan wins,
or Heifer International if Palmer wins.

Ayyappan's Argument

Virtual reality is able to provide immersive experiences to users and let people connect easily across the world. This is relevant for the sport experience as it makes expensive experiences accessible to the average person. Virtual reality also lets fans who won't meet in real life or friends who can't meet in real life, connect online to share the experience together. Finally, virtual reality devices are making incredible progress in comfort, ease of use and quality of video rendered. All of this makes the sports experience ripe for disruption in the next 4 years.

Palmer's Argument

While VR tech has made grand strides in recent years, it’s a cyclical interest that arises each time we take a step forward in hardware. The latest hardware cycle doesn’t warrant the widespread adoption that VR bulls predict, due to the hardware still not being at the level to support a societal norm, both in form and cost. Put simply, sporting a giant set of goggles and wires will not be accepted or affordable at a mass level for a passive activity like watching TV in the next 4 years.


Detailed Terms

VR is defined as "an immersive viewing technology that takes up the totality of one's vision". The people watching via VR will be measured by reported numbers from the companies & agencies that track these statistics. If the predictor finds at least one company with VR viewership numbers higher than stadium capacity, the predictor wins.