Bet 761

Duration ? years (02018-???)

“After Warren Buffett "retires," the next five-year capital gain on Berkshire-Hathaway stock will exceed the five-year capital gain before his "retirement." ”

Henry Buist


Buist's Argument

Mr. Buffett's "retirement" will launch his greatest masterpiece: his succession plan, despite whatever short-term drop in the stock price his "retirement" might provoke. Ignoring short-term market wackiness has been his message for years. This is an ostensibly if not speciously bad bet for me because the latest Berkshire 5-year performance has exceeded the S&P by 14 percentage points and the future conflates with macro factors beyond Berkshire's control. However, speciousness arises because Mr. Buffett might never "retire," in which case all bets are off, macro-factor-wise, even if the long bet is still on but infinitely unobservable.

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