Bet 760

Duration 31 years (02018-02048)

“At least one or more of the current tech-giant companies has a "Scorched Earth" doctrine that would be executed in the event of the emergence of a cyber-deity.”

PREDICTOR
Jakob M Conner

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Conner's Argument

The recent discussion about the rise of an immortal authority from a self-aware system has spun some interesting commentary among those who musingly entertain such notions. Something of the magnitude of an unstoppable machine certainly has had some well-devised planning put aside in everyone's "just in case" file. Suppose I had better name my son John whenever that bridge comes for me to cross...guess that means I need to find a Sarah to mother him as well.

What are the plans for humanity's defense from an AI? How do the big-shots plan to bring down the system that cannot be stopped? How do we protect humanity from becoming enslaved by the master we create?

The only surefire way to defeat such a cyber-deity, would be to ensure that it never existed in the first place…I believe that is the overall plot of the Terminator franchise. Should an organization make a plan or program known, in which the goal was to achieve a fully autonomous cyber-consciousness, I predict that the other philanthropic tech-moguls of the world would execute a doctrine of economic and technological collapse to ensure that the infrastructure necessary for the cyber-deity to thrive would no longer be sufficient.

Simply put, if there's no one paid to keep the lights on, no one paid to make the lights, no one to get the lights to wherever the lights are needed, well…the lights won't stay on. An intentional world-wide depression would undoubtedly have devastating effects on humanity. However, humanity would endure and survive for future generations to rebuild.

Archiving our modern-day achievements has been a valuable market all its own. Interstellar travel to other worlds has been littered with the idea of sending embryo's instead of people in order to "spread" the seed of humanity, not necessarily to transport the present population to other worlds. There are multiple forms of redundant information gathering and storing for future generations to make it back to the present zenith of our technology should the bubble ever burst.

The sacrifice of some of humanity to ensure that the whole would never be enslaved by this immortal cyber-deity is, to me, the only strategy to defeat it in the earliest stages of its awakening. Should that attempt fail, there is only speculation as to what humanity would experience.

I predict that this doctrine will be executed in the next 30 years (02048), but the information regarding these events may not be available for quite some time after. I would hold that by my 100th birthday (02086), a definitive answer would be available. The criteria would of course fall to the predictive time of (02048), with room to argue after.

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