Bet 687

Duration 10 years (02015-02025)

“The June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent.”

Robert D Atkinson


Atkinson's Argument

Increasingly a large number of pundits and scholars, including Eric Brynjolfsson, Martin Ford, Andrew McAfee, and Vivek Wadhwa, have argued that technology is rapidly advancing and will soon lead large scale displacement of workers with technology. These views have rapidly become the prevailing wisdom regarding emerging technology with the result being that voters and policy makers are now more likely to resist technological change and automation, rather than embrace it.

But the "robots are killing our jobs" proponents miss the fact that automation lowers prices (or raises wages) which in turn spurs increased demand for goods and services, and hence labor. As such there is no reason to believe that either unemployment or the share of adults in the workforce will decline in any significantly way going forward.

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