Bet 678

Duration 10 years (02014-02024)

“Apple will release an electric car within the next decade.”

PREDICTOR
Tobie Langel

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Langel's Argument

With the Apple Watch, we're witnessing Apple shift away from being a tech brand to being a tech-powered Luxury brand. Apple's expertise in creating amazing software-based UX puts them way ahead of every luxury brand as soon as software is involved in the product. With software eating the World, Apple's UX expertise will become a distinctive advantage in an increasingly large number of verticals.

I give it a decade before Apple releases the Apple Car. An electric car that can compete with Teslas on "hardware" capabilities, but sports mind-blowing software/hardware integration and UX.

Remember that it took Tesla less than a decade from initial incorporation to shipping the Model S. Not only is apple sitting on a huge pile of cash, it's also not starting from scratch and has heavily invested in technologies critical to electric and potentially self-driving cars: batteries, voice recognition, maps. Not to mention its supply chain knowhow and biz dev experience to build supercharger networks.

In hindsight we'll contemplate Apple's current efforts to bring the iPhone inside of cars with the same contempt as we looked at the Motorola Rokr once the iPhone was launched. Apple can't be happy with this poor user experience and will want to control the whole of it.

Give it 10 years.

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