Bet 626

Duration 5 years (02012-02017)

“The United States will not experience hyperinflation (defined by 3 consecutive months of 6% Month over Month inflation according to the Billion Prices Project measurement of MoM inflation) from April 17th 2012 to April 17th 2017. ”


Sankowski's Argument

Many people claim the United States will experience hyperinflation, because of a massive increase in the monetary base. The monetary base has shown a huge increase as you can see at FRED under BASE,

The bulk of the increase in the monetary base happened in late 2008. This prediction gives nearly 9 years for hyperinflation to occur in the United States - many times any reasonable "long and variable delays" between monetary base increases and inflation could logically be linked.

Other people point to so called Quantitative Easing as a trigger for hyperinflation. The first rounds of QE happened in early 2009. This prediction gives 8 full years for the hyperinflationary impacts of QE to manifest in the United States.

Modern Monetary Realism ( and Modern Monetary Theory ( both say there will be no hyperinflation due to the increase in the monetary base. MMR and MMT claim inflation is not likely at all. High inflation might be caused by either vastly higher energy commodity prices due to supply constraints or increases in the notional value the government pays for goods and services. The large increase in the cost of oil has not caused runaway inflation as of April 25, 2012, simply because it was not large and sustained enough. There has been no large increases in the values paid by the U.S. government through April 2012.

Since neither of these two circumstances has happened or are likely to happen in the U.S. during the next 5 years, there will be no hyperinflation in the U.S. as defined by the above prediction for the next 5 years. .

6% MoM inflation ends up being just over 100% Year over Year (101.2%) inflation if exactly 6% inflation rate is sustained for an entire year. This prediction only requires 3 consecutive months of 6% MoM inflation.

The Billion Prices Project - used by this predictions as the measurement of price levels - can be found here as of April 25, 2012.

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