Bet 437

Duration 5 years (02008-02013)

“The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar.”

PREDICTOR
Tim Wiebe

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

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Wiebe's Argument

Iraq has at least 115 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Most of Iraq has not been geologically explored, with modern seismic techniques, due to restrictions by the Iraqi government for 40 years. The 115 figure comes from old surveys, and is likely much higher.

Recently, senior Iraqi officials have publically stated that the petroleum reserves of Iraq are the largest in the world, larger than Saudi Arabia.

Worldwide petroleum production has peaked globally, around the year 2007, according to proponents of Hubbert's curve.

Crude oil in Iraq is "sweet light crude", meaning it is very high quality, and is extremely cheap to produce, at around $2 a barrel in production costs, which are the cheapest in the world, even factoring the high cost of security.

Iraq may have up to 25% of the remaining cheap crude oil in the world, that is easily accessable, with known and proven technology.

Iraq is likely to emerge, within 15 years, as one of the wealthiest nations in the world. If Iraq does indeed, have 300 billion barrels of oil, and oil stays at least at $100 a barrel, due to Peak Oil, then the value of that asset would be $1 million U.S. dollars, per Iraqi, approximately, if you multiply 300 billion barrels, times 100 dollars, and divide by the population of Iraq, which is around 30 million, according to some estimates.

Iraq would be a country where every man, woman, or child, would be a millionaire.

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