The countries issuing the Euro (€) have too little in common and too different economic interests.
At this moment, in October 2011, the prediction is arguably more likely to come true then ever. However, I will nevertheless bet against it, for the following reasons:
- While the weak sense of a shared destiny among Europeans today will make progress on the front of further political integration hard, I believe the groundwork for a European identity has been laid.
In the medium term, the pro-Europe position will have more political capital available to it then it's opponent (meaning voters against further integration are less likely to consider this a decisive issue).
- Economically, the currency union works to the benefit of it's members. A number of economic papers have investigated the effect of a common currency on trade, and concluded that there is a strong connection.
- If there is indeed an EMU breakup, or a partial breakup, Germany and France would probably be least likely to give up on the Euro.
The predictor wins if at 01/01/02018 France, Italy and Germany are no longer using the Euro as their legal currency.
The predictor also wins in the case that dramatic geopolitical events (such as one of the three countries ceasing to exist) render the prediction's formulation ambiguous, or if there is reasonable disagreement over whether the currency that the three countries share may be considered the same currency as today's Euro.