Bet 341

Duration 53 years (02008-02061)

“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive for a very long time.”


Brust-Braun's Argument

My prediction is based on this definition of embryo space colonization.

The essential requirements include the ability to
build an artificial womb, i.e. a machine that nurtures and grows a human embryo outside of a woman's body (see
create androids based on advanced robotics that are capable of raising children and running on linguistic software that passes the Turing test (see
construct a spaceship for slow interstellar travel using strong and durable materials such as carbon nanotubes which will last for several 10,000 years (see
select an Earth-like exoplanet for human colonization based on data retrieved by telescope systems such as ESA's Darwin mission or NASA's Terrestrial Planet Finder (see

My predictions are related to

Ray Kurzweil's 'Law of Accelerating Returns' and humanity's development towards intelligence explosion or a technological singularity (see - my second requirement listed above is almost identical to 'Bet #1'
Vernor Vinge's short story 'Long Shot' which describes the attempt of embryo space colonization from the artificial intelligence's point of view
The science fiction novel 'The Future Happens Twice' (see which is set in the year 2061 and demonstrates the feasibility of embryo space colonization in more detail (Matt Browne is my pen name)

Please note that a superintelligence or singularity is not required for the construction of androids capable of child-rearing and piloting an interstellar spaceship. Strong AI or artificial general intelligence that matches human intelligence is sufficient. Similarly, the technical feasibility of cryonics involving the revival of hibernating humans is not required. This could be discussed in a separate prediction or bet.

My predictions do not include the actual construction of the starship in the year 2061, as the required budgets might not be allocated by politicians or private enterprises. My predictions will prove correct if the majority of scientists and engineers in 2061 agree that the fundamental limitations no longer exist.

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