Bet 196

Duration 20 years (02005-02025)

“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 degrees Celsius over the next 20 is more accurate than the Lindzen/denialist position that temperatures are as likely to decrease as increase. Choosing a prediction that is halfway between the consensus and the denialist viewpoints, I predict that temperatures will increase by at least .15 degrees Celsius from 2005 to 2025. This bet is open to anyone who wants to accept it.”

Brian A Schmidt


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Schmidt's Argument

MIT professor Richard Lindzen is the most famous of the global warming denialists, and considered the model for the protagonist in the well known science fiction novel, State of Fear. He said in 2004 that temperatures are as likely to decrease as they are to increase - in other words, the middle point prediction for him is no change in average temperatures. By contrast, the likely temperature range announced by the United Nations Integovernmental Panel on Climate Change is an increase of .2 to .4 degrees Celsius over 20 years. I choose the middle of that range, .3 Celsius, for purposes of facilitating a bet. Halfway between the midpoint I chose on the IPCC range and the midpoint for a denialist (no change) is .15 degrees Celsius. Anyone who thinks Lindzen and the denialists are right should be attracted to this bet.

I believe there is a plethora of information for why my prediction is likely to be correct, starting here:

Schmidt was challenged to a bet!

Brian A Schmidt is negotiating the terms of a bet about this prediction. It will soon be added to Bets on the Record.