“Science fiction author Michael Crichton has predicted the world will warm by 0.81 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.
Thomas Wigley and Sarah Raper ("Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming," Science Magazine, Volume 293, 20 July 2001) examined the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR).
Wigley and Raper concluded that the IPCC TAR projections were for a 50/50 chance of 3.06 degrees Celsius of warming from 1990 to 2100.
I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere (the atmosphere from roughly zero to 20,000 feet), as measured by satellites, will be closer to Michael Crichton's predicted value of 0.81 degrees Celsius, than the IPCC's value (via Wigley and Raper) of 3.06 degrees Celsius.
In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.
Measurements should be done as a 3-year average centered around the year in question (i.e. 1989, 1990 and 1991, compared to 2099, 2100 and 2101).
The projections in the IPCC TAR for atmospheric methane concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide emissions, and resultant atmospheric concentrations, are much too high. Therefore, the warming in the lower troposphere won?t be nearly as high as the 3.06 degrees Celsius that the IPCC projects. In fact, the warming in the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100 will be much closer to Michael Crichton?s prediction of 0.81 degrees Celsius.