Bet 156
Duration 21 years (02004-02025)
PREDICTOR
Thomas D Quigley
CHALLENGER
Steve M Midgley
will go to The United Nations if Quigley wins,
or The Peace Museum, Chicago IL if Midgley wins.
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The world's most serious issues today are global ones: self-perpetuating violence, skyrocketing energy demand, environmental damage and economic dislocation. No single country, even the United States, can solve these issues single-handedly. While the US attempts to do just that, the European Union is taking the opposite approach--uniting. In fact, Maastricht has been so successful that a shocking 25 countries are member nations. The GDP of the EU is roughly equal to that of the US. Western Europe has the highest voter turnout on the globe.
If the current trend continues, the world will soon be organized around the EU, or its successor, and the US. Globalists in the states will push for US accession. Since the US Constitution, amazing at it is, does not contemplate its own demise, it will need to be amended rather than dissolved. That process will go to the states.
I see this bet as essentially describing the economic trajectory of the US. If the strength of the US economy is surpassed in a substantial way (probably through a major US industrial stumble) then the US would have to look to global government as a port in the storm.
I think Quigley is pointing out correctly that Icarus' wings are soft but I will argue that the weight of US military power will suffice carry the US constitution through 2025 without so much as a vote of consideration for a global authority.
