China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.

The possibility certainly exists, although I'm not swayed by the arguments contained in the bet's details. If China experiences a strong sentiment of neo-classicism -- which I think could easily happen -- then Buddhism, frex, might fill the 'void' instead of Christianity.

But I think a hidden advantage for Kelly is that the bet says "identifying themselves as Christian". A lot of Asians who are Buddhists (or Shintoists, or both) are comfortable identifying themselves as also following additional religions. (There's a famous Chinese saying, "All religions are fingers on one hand, but Buddhism is the palm.")

This dogmatic flexibility should make it easier for Kelly to win the bet, even if things don't progress the way he suggests they will.

As stated, the presence of Christianity in China is rooted over centuries. The real question is how Christianity has arrived there.

Missionaries – The largest source of Christianity in China is almost certainly through missionaries. The fundamental flaw with missionaries is that the local populous is essentially forced to proclaim beliefs in order to receive the real benefits they desire – food, medical attention, etc. A sick, impoverished and hungry people will say a good many things to appease an outsider who comes with assistance. Will these people then proclaim they are Christian? Certainly. Will they actually be Christian? No.

To look at a similar example, take early Spanish “explorers” to the South American nations and the Caribbean. A form of voodoo existed here. The Spanish forced Catholicism on the people. To appease the Spanish (and possibly to live a few more days) they openly accepted Catholicism, but secretly formed Santeria. Here traditional Yoruban deities are given the names and images of Catholic saints. They openly appear Catholic – but are they?

Studies Abroad – As mentioned in the argument, some of the aristocracy of China have studied abroad in hopes of being able to bring the economic prosperity found in other nations back to China. These individuals experience a “full emersion” experience and often take back everything they experienced – education, value systems, religion, etc. It is unlikely though that such an individual would then be able to influence a significant number of people back in China.

Globalization and Communications – an interesting twist here is the Global community. The indigenous population of China is starting to reap the benefits of a global economy. With such benefits, as well as global communications and freedoms, the very “carrots” that Missionaries hold in front of them become more easily accessible. As such, the people of China are free to take these benefits without attached strings – without having to declare a faith or value system. This, for the first time, gives many the ability and freedom to retain their existing belief system and still advance their human condition. No longer will the people of China be forced to publicly declare themselves Christian in order to receive a meal.

But then, I have been wrong before…

China has a better chance of becoming an islamic state by 2085 because Islam is spreading faster than christianity. Also northern and western part of China are almost islamic influenced from Central Asia and this influence can easily spread to the south and east slowly but gradually unless the communist government puts a clamp. But if the communist government intervenes, I'm sure it will also intervene from christainity taking hold there also.

mjw was right - "...I think a hidden advantage for Kelly is that the bet says "identifying themselves as Christian". A lot of Asians who are Buddhists (or Shintoists, or both) are comfortable identifying themselves as also following additional religions."

In Indonesia, for another example, members of animist sects such as Wektu Telu identify themselves as "Muslims," perhaps because Islam is probably the single most accepted religion in Indonesia.

Other examples - Galician Jews fleeing the Spanish Inquisition scattered to the winds, but a few of them remained in Spain or moved to Spain's new empire in the Americas, self-identifying as Christians while continuing, if only in small and not easily perceived ways such as housecleaning methods and family observances, to remain Jews.

As mjw says, the language of the bet, rather than any great potential for true evangelism throughout China, seems to offer the most hope of it coming true.

The language of Prediction 119 just reminded me of something else.

Back in the Bad Old Days of the Cold War, we didn't really think of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe as "Christian nations," even though all of Eastern Europe except Albania and parts of Yugoslavia were populated by people who were either openly or secretly Christian - probably at least 33 percent of the population in most countries, and in places such as Croatia, Poland and Slovakia, probably much, much higher.

So there's that issue - even assuming an incredible success rate with Christian evangelism, to the extent that 33 percent of the population of China either secretly or openly professes Christianity, but with the current aggressive supression of most religions by the government, would China be considered a Christian nation by outsiders?

Most of us didn't consider Eastern Europe to be composed of "Christian nations," even though most of Eastern Europe now is not only Christian, but fervently so by current American standards.

And whose standards for "Christian" shall we accept? Remember that China has its own officially-approved (or tolerated) "Chinese Catholic Church," which is about as independent as the Orthodox Church was in the Soviet Union.

By some people's lights, hardly anyone in the United States is "really" a Christian, because we don't practice the same form of Christianity as (name your favorite sect). Denying the Christian-ness of people you don't like (or control) is a time-honored tactic in some places, and apparently either comforting or entertaining to some people.

Certainly, until we're all goose-stepping along to the same hymn ("Wondrous Things Of Thee Are Spoken" has a catchy tune for that purpose) and mailing our tithes to the same TV evangelist, there will always be people who call the United States a hotbed of paganism, in which the poor, oppressed "true Christians" are thwarted at every turn.

The prediction is supported by the prophecies of Edgar Cayce the so-called "Sleeping Prophet". Cayce said China would become the MOST Christian nation on earth. Cyace was not a typical Christian, though. He put little credence in Christ as a person and spoke more about the Christ Spirit which manifested itself in compassion, spiritual strength and altruism. China would not be religiously Christian but would practice principles that were more truly in keeping with the Christ Spirit.

Given China's rapid development, its collectivist governence, it's nascent impulse to think in global as opposed to strictly nationalistic terms, I think that such a transformation is quite possible long before 2050.

Someone asked me how this would be measured.

The traditional way of assessing religious affiliation is to ask people what they believe in, what services they go to, what they call themselves. This is what I meant by self-identification. Generally in this case, unlike say sexual behavior, or income, what people tell you is pretty reliable.

While multiple allegiences may be common in Asia, in places like the Phillippines and Korea a definite trend can still be ascertained.

Raj said:
"China has a better chance of becoming an islamic state by 2085 because Islam is spreading faster than christianity. Also northern and western part of China are almost islamic influenced from Central Asia and this influence can easily spread to the south and east slowly but gradually unless the communist government puts a clamp. But if the communist government intervenes, I'm sure it will also intervene from christainity taking hold there also."

The Chinese have tried to promulgate Wah'habi Islam (the sect which shares power in Saudi Arabia with their royal family) in their southwest provinces since the 1950s, which places the Uighurs and other predominantly Muslim (but not Wah'habi) ethnic groups at odds with their government.

China also has an "official" Chinese Catholic Church which is heavily controlled by their internal security apparatus, begging the question - if China has more professing Christians or Muslims than the USA, but they belong to sects which are appendages of the Chinese government, does this make China a "Christian" or "Muslim" country?

Again, in many countries in Eastern Europe we found out that Christianity had a stubborn, broad following among the common people despite decades of official suppression of the Church. Were these countries "Christian" despite their governments' real hostility toward the Church?

These aren't rhetorical questions. We need to define what the term "a Christian/Muslim country" means before we can say whether or not the conditions of the bet were met.

Cayce said China would become the MOST Christian nation on earth.

I believe this is possible. Another thing to consider is the Chinese unconscious. What is attractive to it?

China remains the last big empire. All other European, Asiatic, or other empires disappeared long ago. China will remain an empire.

What's important about that? Culture has changed little in thousands of years. How has science, philosophy, or art grown in China? Do we see the same vast invention of new disciplines like we have from Europe? Is there as much philosophical varation in China as there has been in Europe?

China remains a big area of land dominated by a small group of people. The rule of Conquerers remains. It's still in their culture and their philosophy. Confucius was easily received at time when people only saw war. Is it surprising Chinese would be attracted to peace and order?

And so, common Chinese suffer much like slaves have before.

Christianity, which promises eternal life and happiness, which gives reason for their current lot, current suffering, and says to them, someday you will be free. How can Chinese not like that?

It's very interesting. No where besides China has such a large group of people stayed unified for so long. They stayed together through a tradition that grew ever more strict in its demands of a moral education. You can see this even in their writings. Everything has been kept and rewritten with an almost absolute respect for dogma.

Any other beliefs tha the Chinese have aren't likely to last. Taoism is a surviving artifact from pre-feudal matriarchal and matrilineal China. Neither it nor Buddhism provide any psychic relief from the strict orthodoxy that's been asked of the Chinese since the founding of the empire.

I still believe Christianity, more than any other religion, justifies human suffering; it even makes of it a virtue. I think we'll see some rather dramatic growth in Chinese Christianity in the next 300 years. The other religions haven't provided the relief necessary to make sense of their life and give them a direction towards freedom from their suffering. Christianity is it.

A civilization with several thousands of years of history, with strong Buddhism and Taoism roots will not convert to a religion that has existed for less than 1800 years. In addition to the above, Christianity is losing it's gounds as an outdated concept. It is more likely that by 2085 there will be no Christianity than the majority of China's population converting to it.

China will soon be home to more Christians than any other nation (in absolute numbers). Statistics on this are not firm - many believe that they have already bypassed the United States. There is no doubt that the current growth is explosive. I have seen it first hand and it's a shock to grapple with the current rate of expansion.

The question is: will this growth continue? Contrary to an earlier post, this growth has not happened predominately in the presence of missionaries. Missionaries certainly laid the groundwork for today's Chinese church, but there are simply not enough missionaries in the entire world to account for the current growth.

Gerlach, writing in the 1960's, noted a number of reasons for religious movements to grow. There are two important ones on his list that bear on this issue: 1) an acephelous, reticulated network structure and 2) persecution or a perceived sense of persecution. If China liberalizes to the point where they have freedom of speech and freedom of religious practice these two facets may fade, and the movement could be doomed. Even this may not happen: South Korea is a liberalized, Asian country and is hovering right about 30% Christian with continued growth.

Personally, I feel that this prediction is too conservative. I would say you could dial it back to 2040 or 2050 and be right on.

I would just add a more general comment: Westerners are not very informed about the fact that Christianity is growing quickly worldwide. Even though we hear repeated claims of Islamic and Secular growth in the media, and it is true that the West is losing its religion, the East is turning to Christianity on a scale unprecedented in history. Much of that growth is in Africa and Asia. In our futures we will not be thinking about "white Anglo-Saxon Christians." We will be thinking about Muslim Europeans and Asian Evangelicals. It's sheer demographics, baby.

http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/china_705/

Good call, Kevin.