Bet 105
Duration 2 years (02003-02005)
PREDICTOR
Thomas L Holaday
CHALLENGER
Unchallenged
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I believe the reason Osama bin Laden has not circulated a videotape of himself reciting poetry praising al Qaeda actions after December 13, 2001, is that he is dead.
Alternative explanations include:
He is so grossly incapacitated that his simple appearance would be demoralizing.
He fears revealing his post-plastic-surgery appearance.
He has nothing good to say, so he is politely saying nothing.
Evidence suggesting that he is not dead yet includes:
An audiotape, said to be his voice.
Notes believed to be in his handwriting.
Testimony of his cronies.
I do not find that evidence conclusive.